MyDD :: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9

SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9

by American1989, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:25:40 PM EST

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=7e1ed059-9ef0-4a2c-a2a6-3cbef8 ca9803

Obama 50
Clinton 41

Permalink :: 13 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (none / 0)

PPP has him ahead by 25 points, 57-32. Will be interesting to see what happens to SUSA's reputation if they blow NC. They were similarly off in SC.

However, I have noticed a strange pattern in that SUSA shows big outliers for weeks before their last poll suddenly fits in with the others. Their last Pennsylvania poll has Clinton up only 6%, whereas just a couple weeks ago they had her up by 18%. Strange.

by Skaje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:30:02 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (2.00 / 1)

Same with PPP in PA

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:51:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (none / 0)

Two of SUSA's worst polling states were in the South. Specifically, SUSA was off by 16 in SC and 12 in AL (only had Obama at +2). It was also off by 12 in Missouri, which isn't the south exactly but is similar in certain demographic and cultural respects. As far as I can tell, SUSA didn't poll the Georgia or Mississippi primaries, although it did poll Virginia, where Obama's support was underrepresented by 8% in their last poll.

I don't really know why SUSA would be worse in the south compared to other areas, but I just thought it might be nice to remind folks that SUSA (aka, "world's greatest pollster") can be substantially wrong on occasion, especially in the south.

On the other hand, PPP was the most accurate pollster for the SC primary.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/ 2008/01/ppp-most-accurate-numbers-in-cou ntry.html

Oh, and here are some links to the numbers I cite in the first paragraph.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/al/alabama_democratic_pri mary-281.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democra tic_primary-234.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/mo/missouri_democratic_pr imary-534.html

by DPW on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:20:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Their last numbers were Obama+10 (none / 0)

This poll seems wrong to me. Most glaringly in that 15% of those who ALREADY VOTED are supposedly 'undecided'!

John McCain

by MILiberal on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:37:34 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (none / 0)

Clinton would probably take a 9-10pt loss at the moment if she can win Indiana solidly

by liberalj on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:38:21 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (none / 0)

"Clinton would probably take a 9-10pt loss at the moment if she can win Indiana solidly"

I'm sure she would, but Indiana is going to be tight for either candidate.

Early polls show it neck and neck, a solid win is really stretching it?

"Well the danger on the rocks is surely past... Still I remain tied to the mast"...Don Fagen, Poet and Piano Player

by WashStateBlue on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:47:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (none / 0)

I've seen one recently with her up 10pts i think. If, big if, she wins PA by 10-15 then the bounce could carry her to a 10pt win in Indiana.

by liberalj on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 07:19:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (none / 0)

The last SUSA poll was also an outlier with Obama at +10...others polls show him with a much wider margin.

by John Seal on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:43:41 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (none / 0)

I'll go out on a limb and predict that she will close in on him in NC, and win Indiana after her big win tonight in Pa. It will be even closer than +9 in NC.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:49:56 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (none / 0)

So instead of 9% you think he'll win by about the same % she's going to win PA?

by Socraticsilence on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:33:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (2.00 / 0)

No. Three weeks ago they were at +10, so this is basically "no change".

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:00:29 PM EST

PPP does a lot of polling in NC (none / 0)

check out their blog.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:21:00 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC POLL: OBAMA +9 (none / 0)

If God himself visited earth with the sole purpose of conducting a poll, Obama supporters will find flaws in his methodology if he found Obama trailing.

by kingsbridge77 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:38:24 PM EST

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