SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carolina [LINK]

by American1989, Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 09:57:54 PM EST

I am watching Hannity and Colmes (don't ask why) and they just showed the Insider Advantage poll showing Hillary beating Obama 44-42

Now, some caution: The guy from IA said that the African-American vote electorate is a bit lower and some 20% are going to Clinton (which I doubt seriously)

So, is this poll reliable given that dimension? I don't think so, but gives us to talk about.

Also said that the white vote is consolidating for Hillary over Obama.

http://www.internetnewsagency.com/storylink_430_378.aspx

** Another side note, as far as I remember, I do not have links, Insider Advantage has shown the black support to be high for Clinton, but eventually, that never occurs. But, nonetheless, it is something to talk about. Also, this was from TV and that is it. I do not know of any link online, but I am sure that Todd and Jerome will look into that.




Tags: Insider Advantage (all tags)

Display:
Permalink :: 103 Comments :: Post a Comment


Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

cross tabs please?


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 09:58:51 PM EST

Not all pollsters give out their crosstabs (none / 0)

At least not for free.  At Rasmussen, you have to have a subscription to access them.


by lombard on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:00:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

here ya go.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:10:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/d ownloads/uploaded/43_InsiderAdvantage_Ma jority_Opinion_NC_Dem_Poll_(4-30-08).pdf

Just checked the crosstabs in this poll. Some notable areas for concern:

1. Black turnout projected at 25%. I would bet it's about 30-33%.

2. They have Obama among blacks at 65-20. I think 20 is Clinton's ceiling with black voters.  

3. I think their white vote is a tad conservative for Clinton. I think she will win white voters by about 25.


by reggie44pride on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:16:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The poll is wrong (none / 0)

(Reposted from another thread)
Look at their numbers:
They have African-American turnout at only 25% of voters, and Obama winning them only 64-20.

If you believe that, I have a bridge that I would like to sell you in Brooklyn.

The important part of the poll is the white vote, which it shows Obama losing by 20% (compared to SUSA, which has it 30%.) But considering its inaccuracies on the African-American vote, I don't think that can be trusted.

But just for kicks, if we use SUSA's numbers for everything but the white vote, then the reweighed numbers are 49-37 Obama.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:28:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carolina (none / 0)

Yes, I saw it this is awesome !!!!!!!!!...
... go Hillary

We can do it... don't get complacent ... keep going all out for her... she's fighting for you.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 09:59:29 PM EST

Re: Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carolina (none / 0)

rec'd this diary...

Huge news, NC is quintessential Obama demographic.

We will win it on his turf . . . New Narrative a 'comin.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:01:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I doubt she will win it (none / 0)

But if she keeps it close and the final result is very different from a similar, but earlier, state like VA, the evidence of momentum will be strong.


by lombard on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:06:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clear chance to win it (none / 0)

She has a clear chance to win it . . . it looks like AA are not going 90% for Obama in NC for what's been purported in the Poll. . .

Obama's got to get them back in the next 6 days because it will be difficult to erode the white vote that's going 2/3 to her.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:11:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But I'd be surprised if he doesn't get near 90% (none / 0)

He has everywhere else.


by lombard on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:48:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That was before his denunciation of Wright (2.00 / 1)

He will lose some because of that. Unless this hit-piece robo-call story gets legs on TV (or some other race baiting story), I doubt he will see 90% from AAs again.

That said, what I don't understand is why does the poll have more than 50% of the Hispanic vote going to Obama and a little over 30% going for Clinton? Is that a typo or has that demographic shifted massively?


Rules are not necessarily sacred, principles are. - Franklin Delano Roosevelt
by anna belle on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:56:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't know, but other state polls have shown (none / 0)

him winning Hispanics but those states tend to have very small Hispanic populations and I don't think NC has a very large one.


by lombard on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:00:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't know, but other state polls have shown (2.00 / 1)

Reasons why that Latino number is misleading

1. sample is quite tiny

  1. huge 26% undecided indicating that
  2. they might not be telling their true preference to pollster

No way will the total 6% hispanic/asian end up like that


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:12:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

wait wait I just read that closer, did the IA poll really say Hillary is getting 20% of the AA vote?

ok yeah wow, yeah ok.

well then I can't wait for next tuesday, maybe the media needs to report NC as a must win for Hillary so she can knock Obama out.


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:00:07 PM EST

Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

But, if she loses NC by single digits, that will be a decent result.  If she loses by 5% or less that will be a very good result for her because that result would be very different from similar states earlier in the campaign.


by lombard on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

Well not really. She needs to win the rest of the contests by big numbers to catch up. Losing isn't an option.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:08:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, we shall see (none / 0)


by lombard on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, we shall see (none / 0)

See what?


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:20:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, we shall see (2.00 / 1)

The super delegates, especially the non elected ones, are less likely to support a candidate who is unlikely to win in November.

An Obama loss in NC (where 40% of the voters are african american) would be a huge blow to Obama's viability argument.

The numbers are important, all the numbers, not just the pledged delegate numbers.

]{


by kristoph on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:46:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

Superdelegates will flow to Hillary after this win.

... that's all that matters... you can keep your pledged delegates.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:13:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

Right. Because superdelegates are eager to overturn the pledged delegates.  


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:18:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

no no no this is it. THIS is when FINALLY the supers move

they said it was Feb 5th, but no no its March 4th, Obama is done on March 4th, because PA votes on 4/22 and THEN he was done, but now they mean it, tuesday is FINALLY the day they have been talking about for 2 months, the supers are going to move to Hillary!


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:23:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's just so damned unfair (none / 0)

... really unfair, the fact that Hillary, Bill and Chelsea combined are 3 people compaigning 16 hours a day, geeze that's 336 hours worth of handshaking, stumping, q&a per week - and they never ever stop, pause or rest?

Now, how can Obama who needs his vacation-recharge rest periods and Michelle who takes large chunks of time for her kids or whatever to compete with that.  

I mean Clinton has like a 9:2 campaigning advantage over Obama . . . now this isn't fair people, and the MSM oughta know it . . .


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:27:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

B/c he has millions of supporters who want his... (none / 0)

presidency more than him apparently.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:42:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You've either descended into madness (none / 0)

(because the opposite has been the spin) or you're engaging in some sort of half-hearted (but unsuccessful) attempt at mocking humor.


by lombard on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:52:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

He said "you can keep your will of the voters". Hehehehe


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:23:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (2.00 / 1)

New narrative for the Supers, "its about Electability stupid"


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:24:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

so she is changing the metric again,

shock more people had a problem with Hillary and her always changing her positions, then had a problem with Obama and Wright.

hmmmmmmmmm


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:28:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

Obama said he will endorse Hillary if she's the nominee and ask his supporters to support Hillary.

Thank you in advance for your support - Hillary for President.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:30:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

hey indeed if she walks out with the nomination I will vote for her.

just like (though we all know its impossible), but hey if some how Obama is the nominee you will vote for him also!

so its win win


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:32:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, of course that is unlikely (none / 0)

Yes I will, if the Superdelegates go for Obama at the end, then he has my votes . . . that's why I spend my time on this website


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (2.00 / 2)

ITS HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!


by KyleSIU on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:00:16 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (2.00 / 1)

This is the definitive Game Changer that we've been waiting for


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:04:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

I agree Hillary has a lot of Momentum now, it can't be denied I mean she is now UP in NC so I mean she has to win now, because I mean to have ALL this momentum now but then lose NC by like 8-9 thats like a double digit switch!

no way that would kill her momentum, nope NC just became a MUST win for her.


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:03:26 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Nice try, but your objectivity in this race has been less than stellar.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:06:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

because you want to put yourself out as the pillar of objectivity?

the only ones HRC supporters consider objective are those the only agree with HRC herself.

next we get that ALL he experts are objective either they are all in the tank for Obama and won't admit that HRC gas plan is actually a good idea right?


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Well, take a moment and read my comments on this site. I DON'T agree with Clinton on every issue. I don't follow politicians over a cliff. I have a mind of my own, which is more I can say for others.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:21:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Time is not Clinton's friend right now. I seriously doubt this poll considering the demographics, but I won't be surprised if this race is in the single digits. I still believe Obama wins by double digits. Lets see what happens on Tuesday. If Clinton wins IN and puts out a better than expected performance in North Carolina, EVERYTHING changes.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:05:30 PM EST

Irrelevant (none / 0)

according to Hillary, primary results from red states don't count.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:07:10 PM EST

Re: Irrelevant (2.00 / 1)

she has never said that, Arkansas, Tennessee, Ohio and Florida are red states. It is those obscure states like Idaho, Utah, Kansas and North Dakota that are jokes!


by American1989 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:09:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Irrelevant (none / 0)

What will you do if she wins NC?


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:20:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll call on Hillary to withdraw!! (none / 0)

HA!


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:54:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Irrelevant (none / 0)


 But 50 states do
Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:29:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She's got the MO! Now NC is a must win for her!! (none / 0)


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:07:53 PM EST

Re: She's got the MO! Now NC is a must win for her (none / 0)

OK, well, now that's the expectation, right?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:10:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Definitely! (none / 0)

Though really she does have to win the rest of the contests by a lot to catch up.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:12:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Definitely! (none / 0)

Easy call for Supers on May 7 - the path is clear superdelegates will know what to do .. .

. . . go Hillary


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Definitely! (none / 0)

Nah. They're not going to kill the party for a generation. The only way that happens is if Clinton can catch up in pledged delegates. But she can't.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:18:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Definitely! (none / 0)

The game is about Supers and the "mantra" will be "ELECTABILITY".  . . neither have enough pledged delegates.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Definitely! (none / 0)

Nah. She doesn't get to bloody him up and then call him unelectable. She'll need to win the delegates.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:24:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Definitely! (none / 0)

...because the "electability" argument worked so well at getting John Kerry in the white house.


by matchles on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:30:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Oh boy, oh boy.  Polls polls polls.

I hope we don't set this state up to be a win contest for HRC.  It is still the South, and I don't think that Obama has dropped these kinds of numbers in support--moreover, if he has, there's a little ways to election day yet.

HRC by under 9 is a good thing.


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:09:49 PM EST

What about Ras? (none / 0)

Funny that no one mentions the Rasmussen poll that was discussed along with the IA poll on Hannity.

So I will. Rasumussen just released a NC poll with Obama up 14 (51 v 37 -- 12 undecided). The difference, evidently, is primarily explained by the fact that Insider Advantage has Obama only getting like 65% AA support. That's hard to believe, and it would suggest that a decent chunch of the undecided are AA and likely to break toward Obama.

Anyway, here's the link to the Ras Poll: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/state_top lines/north_carolina/toplines_north_caro lina_democratic_primary_april_28_2008


by DPW on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:11:06 PM EST

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

the reason that there is no mention of that poll is because it is two days old and has been talked about whereas the IA poll is new. Second, Rasmussen has not been good this year.


by American1989 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:13:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

Rasmussen has been ranked just behind SUSA IIRC. Better than IA by far. But that's neither here nor there. A loss for HRC in NC is devastating and she must immediately withdraw from the race.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:20:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

Obamabots . . . she must quit, quit, quit, quit ...

. . . realize that she'll never quit . . . stop wasting brain cells on the meme ... you'll sleep better


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:23:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

So when Obama lost a state he was supposed to lose he was supposed to drop out but if she loses a state she's supposed to win she's supposed to stay. Check.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:28:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

If Obama loses NC what remaining states do you think he win?!?

Oregon is trending and probably will go Hillary too. . . well maybe you got Guam, but that's not a state is it.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:33:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

He doesn't need to win any remaining states.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:35:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

So you think the Supers go for Obama when he doesn't win one remaining state thereby losing the vote on 12 straight primaries?


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:39:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

I think they go with the pledged delegates at the end. Only 30% need to do so. 30% most certainly will. Clinton will no be rewarded for bloodying up Obama. Sorry to say the only thing she's been hurting is her rep.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:43:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

keep living in your little dream world . . . no Super will go for any candidate that loses EVERY last remaining primary . . . Thank you for putting that on record. . . you are something else man!


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:49:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

the reality is he ISN'T going to lose every contest from here on out,

Obama only gets 65% of the black vote? really COME ON.

Obama throws Wright under a bus so all the AA ran to Hillary?

but ok sure Tuesday is only 5 days away we will see.


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

I didn't know that the rest of the states and territories were so important!

It's a pledged delegate race. That's all it is.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:52:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

Mind you, if Clinton, in the extremely unlikely event, wins both IN and NC, she will win the popular vote when you include all the caucuses and only FL. That is hard to turn your back on. Obama's name was on the ballot. An Obama ad appeared in the state and GOTV was run for Clinton.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:03:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

It's a delegate race. If it wasn't they would have campaigned differently. I'm not sure how you included caucuses without official state tallies. Obama appeared in what state? I'm not following.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:11:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

This party will not turn its back on the candidate who has the most votes.

The ad I was referring to was an Obama national ad buy that aired in parts of FL. I was trying to make a weak case that FL was legitimate because there was some level of campaigning in the state.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:30:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about Ras? (none / 0)

Oh. Well that's not really campaigning and certainly not comparable to 16 years of name recognition and an appearance the night of the primary. But it's more legit than MI for sure.

If this was a pop vote race the candidates would sit in the big states and ignore the little states. It's a delegate race for a reason. A good one? I don't know. But it's what the DNC chose. They're not going to go against the delegate numbers in sufficient numbers to give it to the candidate with less delegates.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:40:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Hrm, there's a few problems here. Isn't black turnout projected to be 35-40% in NC? The white turnout seems a little high at 70%. The male-female ratio seems a little off too.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:15:31 PM EST

This poll seems bogus (2.00 / 0)

African American = 25% of poll's population (have been told they make up 38% of registered voting bloc, and I don't think their turnout would be that low in a contest this historic).

African American's for Hillary = 20%  (That would be a massive accomplishment, and while I'm sure that positive campaign efforts like her conversation with Dr. Angelou were helpful, I'm not convinced they could be that helpful)


by bobbank on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:18:15 PM EST

Re: This poll seems bogus (none / 0)

I think you're right. This poll dramatically undercounts both (a)Obama's likely performance among african-americans, and (b) the overall turnout for african-americans. It also is probably underestimating HRC's performance among whites, but even so, if you simply adjusted the african-american turnout and Obama performance numbers to mirror that of previous primaries, then even this poll would place Obama ahead by a few points.


by blueflorida on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:43:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

When was the poll conducted? Was any of it post-divorce?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:20:34 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Early voting is showing AA's at 38 percent and most poll's are showing around 33-35 percent for turnout.

This poll is an outlier like the PPP poll in PA which showed Obama leading by 2 pts.

Early voting so far shows Obama ahead vy 61 to 39
with about 175,000 votes cast.


by BDM on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Can you post the link for this? Thanks!


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:39:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Here's the link.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/d ownloads/uploaded/43_InsiderAdvantage_Ma jority_Opinion_NC_Dem_Poll_(4-30-08).pdf


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

No, I meant the link to the early voting stats...


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:51:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Demographics (none / 0)

This poll uses 70% whites, 25% blacks, 5% others (incl. Hispanics)
SUSA uses 61% whites, 33% blacks, 6% others.

The black vote in this poll is too favorable to Clinton to be believed.
That said, the "Hispanics" and "others" in this poll is too favorable to Obama to be believed.

Taking the poll results at face value and using the SUSA demographic breakdown model, it recalculates to being 44-42 for Obama.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:26:34 PM EST

Re: Demographics (none / 0)

Believe it baby, believe it. . . Gov. Easley always ran strong amongst AA, that plus the stumbles and there's your answer


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:43:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Demographics (none / 0)

I'd love to believe it.  Just don't think we should get ahead of ourselves.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:47:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Demographics (2.00 / 1)

I agree, our campaign and GOTV down here will not let up.  If anything this motivates us even more... no complacency down here.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Godspeed (none / 0)


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:59:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

The internals in this poll is horrible. 25% African Americans. 64% of them support Obama (compared to 90% in past races). 53% women (compared to 60% in past races). How "old" is North Carolina? There seems to be a lot more older voters in this poll. In my opinion, I will take this poll with a grain of salt. Just keep it in your peripheral view.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:28:33 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

i agree. it seems too good to be true.


by American1989 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:33:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

What it does show is that Obama's brand is weakening by the hour.

This would have been a 25-30 point win in February for him.


by reggie44pride on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:20:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

RAdd link to diary (none / 0)

http://www.internetnewsagency.com/storyl ink_430_378.aspx


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:31:52 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Both Rasmussen and a IA representative was on the program. The IA rep said that the race was going to tighten especially the AA vote, but the real news is that both pols Rasmussen and IA is the race tightened in NC. They both acknowledge that it is unlikely to remain like this and that Obama will win but it will be close.

She is getting more white voters and Independents. Rev. Wright's statement that he would come after Obama if he won the White House spooked them. The pollsters actually said something to that effect.

Six days can be a lifetime. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic.


"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."
by LadyEagle on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:32:33 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Over how many days was the poll conducted? Was any of it post-divorce?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:36:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

The dates says 4-29 so probably not post divorce . . . so there is HOPE, hope is always in abundance in the Obama campaign.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:41:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

A one day sample? Really?

That's a terrible sampling technique because you don't do call-backs and thus bias the sample toward the type of folks who don't go out at night.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:51:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

. . . I suppose you're right . . . but the trend in polls is undeniable...

. . . the TREND is my FRIEND


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:59:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

I'm curious, how heavily is the RNC Wright ad running? I know it is a very small ad buy, but how often is it on television?


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:43:23 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Not often, it actually was never on often.

. . . but it was reported on in the local and national news/cable/newspapers massively, couldn't miss it.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:45:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Well if Hillary can get

28% of AA vote and they make up less than 32% of the population

AND

She can get 61% of everyone else

Then

She WINS.

Key is Hillary getting 28% of AA vote and or the AA vote staying under 32%

Clinton/Obama 2008
Clinton/Obama 2012
Obama/Edwards 2016
Obama/Edwards 2020


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:43:51 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

hmmm...im skeptical. what can i say, i set low expectations and liked to be surprised with the results.


--++++Stay Gold, Ponyboy!++++--
by amde on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:52:37 PM EST

re (2.00 / 2)

If Clinton sweeps on May 6th I think she'll sweep all of the remaining contests and the nomination. Even Howard Dean said they are watching the remaining contests closely.

The Clintons do not lose and play to win which is why they will beat Obama AND McCain!

Also is it possible at least some African Americans are ticked at Obama for dissing Wright and angling for some payback? Did Obama perhaps gamble the nomination too early while trying to appeal to whites for the general?


by rossinatl on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:52:59 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Please, a message to Clinton supporters, from a fellow supporter. Don't get over hyped by one poll. The election is days away. The poll could be very wrong and Obama could very well win NC like he has won every other southern state, with big double digit margins. Relax.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:08:11 PM EST

What a reversal (none / 0)

Clinton was down 25 points or so just a few weeks ago.

She has really turned the tide on him.

Too bad it's too little, too late, as it's OBAMA IN 08!!!


by reggie44pride on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:18:05 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Another poll distorted the true picture.  surprise surprise.

these pollster play the public like a fool.  they just want a race.  just for the fun of it.


by JoeySky18 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:39:05 PM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

It really does seem so sometimes doesn't it? If the can make it a horserace to get on TV then they will. This pollster said they weighted it differently so then they got this result. Well that got them on TV. I'm sure that was a coincidence.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 11:41:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not going to happen (none / 0)

By the weekend, Rep. Clyburn will be screaming that the Clintons are playing the race card at which point the 20 % vote for Clinton amongst AA's will move to 10 % and Senator Obama will cruise to
victory.  
by ann0nymous on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:10:56 AM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

Insider Advantage has been fairly close with their polling in other states (TX and PA). I think if she does win NC it would be very close, but would be devastating to the Obama campaign.


by sunnyaz08 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:26:29 AM EST

Re: SHOCK Poll: 44 Clinton 42 Obama in North Carol (none / 0)

lets be real, this is margin of error and Obama is gonna win. but if he doesn't win by 10 points, he's in trouble


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Thu May 01, 2008 at 01:18:58 AM EST

dont be gullible (none / 0)

Polls showed Obama "closing the gap"

Hillary will lose NC by probably the same margin she won PA with.


by falcon4e on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:46:16 AM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.

Login
Username:

Password: