If SUSA's correct that 25% of the primary electorate has already voted, then they are predicting that there will be nearly 2 million voters.

SUSA includes 32% AA share of electorate, vs. 35 in several other polls and 40% in actual early voting.  That said they also seem to lowball % of women share (52%).  

Wonder if a Rezko verdict would effect 5 pts?

I love the quote in the article:

"On the eve of the North Carolina Democratic Primary, with 25% of votes already cast, Barack Obama has no breathing room in his hope to defeat Hillary Clinton in popular votes."

This one may be a squeaker come tomorrow night. And the worst thing to happen to Obama tomorrow evening is having the talking heads spin Hillary's double digit win in Indiana while they all wait for the votes to be tallied in North Carolina.

Should be interesting.

heh, it amuses me that you think "hate" is a one way street between these two camps.

Single digit win for Obama in NC and he is in big trouble.

Of course she will claim some victory from closing the gap, just as Obama did. I don't think the media treated it as a win though - they would have had be come within 5.

Also, as an Obama supporter, I don't hate Hillary, though I deplore some of her tactics (and haven't always loved Obama's) Also, I believe exit polls have shown that her voters are less like to vote for him then the other way around.

I also resent your implications that youth makes me more likely to hate. I don't think Hillaryis44 is run by a bunch of 20 year olds.

A win is a win, but still, I would have credited if Obama would have lost PA by 6-7 and same should apply to C in NC

There's 5% Undecided/Other, 80% of it White.

Give BO the 1% AA undecided and the other 4 poitns probably break 3:1 for HRC.

Final tally:  O 52 H 48

We can hope, anyway.

it is very hard to predict mix of blacks and women in NC voting.
If undecided will split 2-1 in Hillary's favor,  It can be very small victory for Obama, like C47-O52 or C48-O51.
However if Hillary's supporters will come in larger numbers (SUSA said women will be 52% but in PA it was much more) and undecided will outperform 2-1 ratio, she can pull a tie or very small upset!

in any case 5 points diff in NC is a huge win for Hillary, she was 20 points behind just a few weeks ago.

So you think Pennsylvania was a moral victory for Obama. Hmmm interesting, hadn't looked at it htat way so far, but interesting indeed.

Can you believe we are sitting here the night before the election looking at a 5 point difference in North Carolina???  Something is up!  Big time.   Obama should be worried.

Seems a little low to me.

SUSA polls have been lowballing the African-American vote in all the Southern States.

She was never really down 20-25 points. Of the past 40 polls in NC, only 4 polls showing a margin greater than 20. And Hillary actually lead by 24 in NC back in November, according to one poll. Go to real clear politics and look at all the the polls since Feb/Mar and you'll see that the margin has consistently fallen in the range of 5 to 15 points, with the exception of a few polls by PPP and one by Rasmussen.

By changing the ``AA'' voting percentage number to 35 in SUSA poll, you would get roughly like 52-43. So these polls are very similar.

means he will win.  Also only 32% African-Americans in their poll when the early voting was 40% means Obama will win.

Obama will probably win North Carolina 5-10%.

Seals the deal. Just do the math.

Wow. After Pa when Obama supporters pointed out how impressive that Obama had cut HRC's lead by half all I read on here was that we were spinning a loss. I don't know about you but that was the majority of posts from HRC supporters. If you think it's true for NC then the same is true for PA.

If Obama only wins NC by 5% and captures 90% plus of the black vote it's actually a huge defeat. If she also wins in Indiana it confirms the unelectable label. This is all speculation but if it turns out like this well there has to be some self questioning.    

I have a prediction for you tomorrow;

North Carolina
Hillary = 57
Obama = 43

Indiana
Hillary 58
Obama 42