Well, the white vote numbers are only for those who don't have college education. Presumably Obama did noticeably better with more educated voters (that's the trend).

But the NC victory would be nothing like SC or VA.

If AAs make up 33% of the electorate and they are going 92% for Obama, Clinton would need to get around 70% of the white vote to pull out a virtual tie with a slim margin of victory.  She hasn't received that anywhere to my knowledge.

If these numbers hold up, I expect he would win the state by about 6% to 8%.  What could give Clinton close to a tie is if black voters made up a smaller share of the final tally (say 28%).  The preference ratios of demographics seem in line with what one would expect at this point so I don't see much changing of them unless substantial numbers of her working age demographics haven't come to the polls yet.

yea, exit polls are extremely iffy. but I'm not sure there's anything in these numbers that justify saying he's in trouble.

For one, 33% of election day voters being black is a good thing for Obama. Especially if you believe that 40% of early voters were black. I imagine that the percentage of black voters will come out to around 35/36%.

Secondly, white voters with college degrees will stabalize the disparity of white voters without college degrees.

If I'm obama, I'm more worried about the IN exit polls.

wait.....I thought the Clinton campaign and its surrogates have ben trumpeting how FAIR fox news has been.

neither black, nor white =)

what did JOHN EDWARDS OR MRS EDWARDS  do wrong to deserve 2% of black vote in  SOUTH CAROLINA ?????

"26% among white voters period isn't going to win a single election, "

And you think that 8% among black voters will win anything?

Plus, like usual, am betting that Clinton has been getting the usual Republican influx per Rush recommendations, so part of her numbers are not actually hers but a loan from McCain.

White male voters are the swing voters in every presidential election.

even if you were white I wouldn't play the race card but it's interesting you don't think that Obama doesn't have a chance to win in November? He very much has a chance and despite all that has gone down with Wright, he's still beating McCain in head to heads.

But Rev. Wright has been an issue longer.  And Clinton has moved in a more economically populist direction.

We seem to be getting an even bigger black/working class white divide, although many more working class whites appear to be voting for Obama than African Americans of all classes voting for Clinon.

90 plus % of the African American vote is amazing, but understandable.

The primary is becoming the identity primary, or maybe it always was.

Next week Hillary crushes Obama in West Virginia.  I mean really blows him out and that dominates the media for a week unless Al Gore endorses Obama.

The following week they split Oregon and Kentucky but Hillary wins Kentucky in another crushing display of white working class popularity.

Then on to Puerto Rico, I have no idea who wins therem

But then Clinton finishes strong with Montana and South Dakota.

How heavy has the rural vote been in NC?

They weren't born black.

At least the third diary in which you spammed that weird comment.

My response:

http://www.mydd.com/comments/2008/5/6/18 1310/5260/46#46