MyDD :: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41

NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41

by American1989, Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:01:42 PM EST

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25096620/

YES WE CAN!!

Obama leads with Independents, Blue Collar Workers, Hispanics, Women and Blacks.

Slightly behind suburban "soccer moms" and 20 points behind white men (boo hoo)

Other: Obama-Clinton beats McCain-Romney by 11 points.

Tags: Poll (all tags)

Permalink :: 43 Comments :: Post a Comment

More proof that HRC will be the best VP (none / 0)

"While Obama has a six-point advantage over McCain, that lead expands when New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is added as Obama's running mate, the poll shows"

A BO/HRC ticket > BO/anybody else

by Chelsea in 2020 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:08:00 PM EST

Re: More proof that HRC will be the best VP (none / 0)

I respectfully disagree. I don't think you can rely on vp polling this far out. There are a lot of potential candidates that would do very well once better introduced to the American public. I am thinking of Schweitzer and Warner off the top of my head. Both little known but possibly very strong candidates.

by turtlescrubber on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:10:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More proof that HRC will be the best VP (none / 0)

That's true in general polling, but state by state it's a mixed bag.
For example, it helps him in Pennsylvania and Ohio, hurts him in Iowa, and, if I recall correctly, hurts him in Virginia.
For the most part, there's no incredibly compelling polling that shows ANYONE really adding a TON to his win column.
The closest is Edwards, where some states look in play that weren't before. But again, it's not an enormous difference.

by EvilAsh on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:12:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary adds 18 million (2.00 / 1)

the primaries were the best "poll" I could think of for this. Hillary could put BO over the top in key swing states.

by Chelsea in 2020 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:17:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary adds 18 million (none / 0)

Um, not 18 million by a longshot. First, it was never 18 million and second, many Clinton supporters have already made the transition because they are fundamentally Democrats.

by gchaucer2 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary adds 18 million (none / 0)

Actually, it was over 18 million who voted for her.

Second, Hillary would unite the party if she were on the ticket. Without her, it will be tough.

by Chelsea in 2020 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:42:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary adds 18 million (none / 0)

How tough? 13-point lead among women tough? 80-percent support of Dems' tough? (Hint: these are both numbers Obama currently enjoys) Don't get me wrong, I would be fine with Hillary on the ticket, but the evidence doesn't bear out that there is a horribly divided party as this point.

by animated on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:13:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary adds 18 million (none / 0)

Wake up! But for the women, the Hispanics, the blue collar workers and the breathing people, Obama would be toast.

by niksder on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:33:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary adds 18 million (none / 0)

I believe Hillary will unite the party whether she is on the ticket or not (although I believe she's going to be pretty quiet until July. One, to get over the loss. Two, to take a well deserved vacation.)

At most, what she brings to the table is about 3 million voters (those voters who voted for Clinton but will not currently vote for Obama). That's certainly nothing to sneeze at, but it's not 18 million.

by EvilAsh on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:17:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary adds 18 million (none / 0)

Well said. Hillary's support is powerful and significant, but 18 million people did not sign a loyalty oath. They voted. Her loss does not mean those voters cease to have a voice of their own and that only she can deliver them. It helps. It helps a great deal, but most of those folks are Democrats who want to see a Democrat in the White House. We don't have to overstate/or understate Hillary's influence.

by niksder on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:57:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

Kevin Drum at Washington Monthly predicts Obama will have at least a 5-point lead pretty much all the way to November. People already know McCain. He really doesn't have any room to expand.

by Skaje on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:10:08 PM EST

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

Not sure that's true.
I mean, people know his NAME, they know he's old, they know he was a POW in Vietnam and that he's some kind of 'maverick'. That's about it.
Good for Obama that this is about all that McCain's got going for him.

by EvilAsh on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:18:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's not much of a lead. Dukakis at this time? (1.00 / 0)

What was Kerry's lead at this time? Or Dukakis'?

by catfish2 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:22:54 PM EST

Re: That's not much of a lead. Dukakis at this tim (none / 0)

what was Clinton's lead?

Oh, that's right, he was way way down.

by Deadalus on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:46:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's not much of a lead. Dukakis at this tim (none / 0)

Kerry led by 2 points. Bush vs. Kerry was NEVER outside of the margin of error.

by sweet potato pie on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:07:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

From what I remember (2.00 / 1)

Kerry was way ahead in the first half of the year. However, his mediocre campaign took its toll on his poll numbers and by the beginning of October his lead collapsed. His massive EV advantage followed pretty much the same pattern. At the time I felt like Fahrenheit 9/11 had galvanized the Republicans and they rallied strong behind Bush... while Kerry just puttered along.

The good news, however, is that this year the roles seem a bit reversed: The Democrats have the energy and the solid campaign meanwhile McCain's campaign is under performing and his base isn't terribly energized. If Obama stays strong, and John doesn't get his ship in order by August, Obama is going to run away with this.

by Homebrewer on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:04:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's not much of a lead. Dukakis at this tim (none / 0)

You still have to run the race, we know. But Clinton v. Dole was ahead at this point. It matters only today and with money (for mccain), but it he were six down, can you imagine all the angst, hyperventilating, etc. Fact is, he's in good shape. And the better fact is, he's ready to run like he's behind against McCain, and that's how you win.

by niksder on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:36:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McCain at 41, Bush's approval: 29. (1.00 / 0)

He's polling way ahead of Bush.

by catfish2 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:23:24 PM EST

Re: McCain at 41, Bush's approval: 29. (none / 0)

Exactly. There's so much room to grow with this line of attack. It's already been effective, and it's only been about a week of "Bush-McCain." Add five more months of "Bush-McCain, Bush-McCain, Bush-McCain" and we Democrats will be in extraordinary shape. "Bush-McCain" should be tossed into every sentence as an adjective by every Democrat through November 4th.

"Man, that Chinese food wasn't sitting well until I took a Bush-McCain crap to flush out my system."

"This Bush-McCain traffic jam is unbearable."

by Pat Flatley on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:30:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

he should be cracking 50% (none / 0)

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:24:27 PM EST

I don't think so since Hillary (none / 0)

conceded in the middle of the time this poll was taken. Poll taken June 6-9 while Hillary conceded June 7th.

It is going to take sometime for Obama to reach Democratic women. They are NOT going to swing towards him over night.

Overall good poll though.

by puma on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Interesting that McCain is stuck in the low 40's (none / 0)

I think this poll shows that people want change but they are just not sure about Obama. They just need reassurance of him and they will swing towards him.

My recommendation for Obama is choose a Vice President who will help reassure people ie a "Sam Nunn" type.

by puma on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:32:10 PM EST

Interesting that McCain is stuck in the low 40's (none / 0)

I think this poll shows that people want change but they are just not sure about Obama. They just need reassurance of him and they will swing towards him.

My recommendation for Obama is choose a Vice President who will help reassure people ie a "Sam Nunn" type.

by puma on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:32:19 PM EST

Massive gender gap (none / 0)

I find the massive gender gap to be surprising. It's a 39-point gender gap, with Obama leading among women by 19 and McCain ahead among men by 20. I have trouble believing this gap is this wide.

And then, if Obama leads women by so much - including white women (by 7 points) - how does he trail among white suburban women by 6? Is he winning rural white women? How many white women are considered "urban" to make up the difference? Strange.

I'd like to see other polling overall.

Also, this poll has a higher Clinton/McCain vote than Rasmussen.

by elrod on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:33:56 PM EST

Re: Massive gender gap (none / 0)

Gallup also showed Obama pulling ahead with woman including older woman:

The NBC/WSJ poll also shows Obama absolutely crushing McCain with Hispanic voters.

In the head-to-head matchup, Obama leads McCain among African Americans (83-7 percent), Hispanics (62-28), women (52-33), Catholics (47-40), independents (41-36) and even blue-collar workers (47-42). Obama is also ahead among those who said they voted for Clinton in the Democratic primaries (61-19).

That is some amazingly fast consolidation around Obama considering the length and intensity of the primary. McCain is running ads on Spanish language radio here in Miami. Obama has not yet engaged. So he is starting from a pretty good baseline.

by hankg on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:05:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this a bigger lead than any of the candidates on either side have had in the past two elections?

by animated on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:34:30 PM EST

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

True. Bush beat Kerry by 3. Gore beat Bush by 0.5. Clinton beat Dole by 9, and beat Bush Sr. by 6.

by elrod on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

Sure. But Dukakis lead by 17 at one point.

The future is unwritten

by Strummerson on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:26:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

we should probably all just throw in the towel then if our candidate isn't up 25 at this point.

Oh well, we can have an after party at my place.

by Xris on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:16:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

Not what I am suggesting at all. My point is rather that we should use this to build morale without turning it into a delusion of overconfidence. I am cautiously optimistic. But polls, particularly at this point, should not be our only indicators of the direction of the contest.

Perhaps the more helpful addition would be that Dukakis was never as fundamentally strong a candidate as I believe Obama will prove to be. Nonetheless, it's the top of the sixth inning with a lot of baseball yet to play. Can't afford to let up or give away at bats.

The future is unwritten

by Strummerson on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 10:10:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary's effect a wash? (none / 0)

What I find interesting is that the Obama/Clinton matchup beats McCain/Romney by 11 points, yet the same percentage of respondents who are more likely to vote for an Obama/Clinton ticket would also vote against it. Perhaps the real difference is Romney.

Clinton neither adds nor subtracts to an Obama ticket. But Romney hurts McCain.

by elrod on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:35:44 PM EST

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

I'm sure he can improve his numbers with soccer moms as they learn about McCain's position on reproductive rights.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:09:17 PM EST

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

Chyeck Todd was talking about that a little while ago. He said they will come home.

by parahammer on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NBC/WSJ: Obama 47 McCain 41 (none / 0)

Yup, 20% of McCain's woman support, which is anemic to begin with, does not know he is anti-abortion. When told, they said it would definitely change their vote.
So, his number there will likely drop farther during this election.

by EvilAsh on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:23:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Latino numbers amazing (none / 0)

This is the second major poll to show Obama crushing McCain among Latinos. This is why the Western strategy is a good one. We will win NM and CO and have a great chance to win NV with Latino numbers this strong. It may even make Florida truly winnable.

Anecdotally, my Florida Jewish grandparents who voted for Clinton are heavily in favor of Obama and think all their Palm Beach County neighbors will go for Obama too.

Don't be fooled: Florida is winnable.

by elrod on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:29:33 PM EST

Re: Latino numbers amazing (none / 0)

Gotta love how the media keeps talking about Obama's "weakness" among Latinos solely because of what happened in the primary. I bet if Hillary were the nominee and she had the exact same numbers they would be talking up her strength among Latinos.

by animated on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:14:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Latino numbers amazing (none / 0)

they don't have much to talk about. If they go with "Obama is beating McCain" that probably doesn't get them a lot of viewers. But if they go with "Is Obama weak with left-handed Native Americans who happened to be born in the month February?" they get more viewers.

MSM FTW!!!

by Xris on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:18:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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